An Attempt at Data-Driven Validation of Early-Stage Technology Trends

This paper was presented at ISPIM Connects Porto Alegre – Social Innovation and Impact in the Global South, on 08-10 April 2024. Event Proceedings: LUT Scientific and Expertise Publications: ISBN 978-952-65069-5-1

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This paper was presented at ISPIM Connects Porto Alegre – Social Innovation and Impact in the Global South, on 08-10 April 2024. Event Proceedings: LUT Scientific and Expertise Publications: ISBN 978-952-65069-5-1
Abstract

Foresight of early-stage technology trends via bibliometrics is often criticized for its perceived limitations in articulating practical relevance or predicting application success. To address that gap, foresight researchers and practitioners usually rely on expert interviews to qualitatively validate their quantitative findings. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to validate the relevance of early-stage technology trends for businesses and to detect early implementation efforts by technology leaders. By combining a bibliometric analysis of scientific publications with trend insights from online job postings as an innovative foresight data source, we use the presumably most early-phased data sources of both perspectives – science and practice – for our assessment of future technology innovation fields. The presented research is part of a larger project which strives to deepen our understanding of the links between scientific advancements and business innovation efficiency, thereby providing a more comprehensive perspective on the commercial viability of emerging technologies.

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